Democrats have seized on a recent independent poll that showed a majority of Minnesotans unlikely to vote for outgoing Gov. Tim Pawlenty should he run for president in 2012. The Democratic National Committee blasted a series of clips on the Minnesota Public Radio poll to reporters over the past 24 hours and also sent along some of the local television coverage -- pictured above -- to drive home a simple point: Those who know Tpaw best don't think he should be president. On its face, the argument makes perfect sense -- and the polling supports it. But, a deeper look suggests that there is less than meets the eye here when assessing Pawlenty's political future. First, the numbers. Fifty three percent of respondents in the MPR poll said they were unlikely to back Pawlenty if he was the Republican nominee for president in 2012. Among electorally critical independents, 57


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The National Rifle Association has brought in the big guns, so to speak. A new web video from the NRA Freedom Action Foundation's "Trigger the Vote" campaign features web sensation, actor and martial arts expert Chuck Norris. The ad, a clear appeal to members of the tea party movement, is already a hit online. The video starts with what appears to be a small gathering of gun-rights supporters, all clad in bandannas, jean shirts and jeans. The leader of the group, "Randy," addresses the gathering, saying, "Our country is under siege my friends, bad guys want to break into your homes, bad guys want to take away your constitutional rights. And ex-girlfriends insist on telling everyone that you still live in a van. Well, guess who just put some money down on a pop-up camper? Randy did." He then goes around to members of the group, asking what they


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By Felicia Sonmez Handicapper after handicapper is predicting not just losses for House Democrats this fall but a potential return to a Republican House majority. University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato projected this morning that the GOP will net 47 seats in the House this November, eight more than necessary to regain power. TIME's Mark Halperin said last week that Republicans could take as many as 60 seats in the House if circumstances remained basically as is in the political world. As the Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook notes, 32 Democratic incumbents currently trail Republican challengers in public and private polling. At the same point in the 2006 cycle, one-third as many Republican incumbents were in the same position. Add to that this week's Gallup poll showing Republicans with an unprecedented lead in the generic ballot test and the next 60 days look grim indeed for Democrats. On the


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By Matt DeLong The Louisiana Democratic Party has released a five-minute documentary-style video depicting Sen. David Vitter's (R-La.) infamous 2007 "D.C. madam" prostitution scandal. The video, which resembles a TV crime show, includes lurid details from an interview with a former prostitute who claimed to have had encounters with the senator -- as well as dramatic reenactments of scenes from these alleged encounters. The video is accompanied by a Web site, forgottencrimes.com, which, despite its name, is entirely about the Louisiana Republican. Vitter is facing a challenge from Rep. Charles Melancon (D-La.) in November. This is the first time he's come before voters since the scandal. The senator has largely remained quiet about the scandal since the days after his phone number was linked to Deborah Jeane Palfrey, the so-called D.C. madam. At the time, Vitter said he had committed "a very serious sin." Watch the video: (Via TPM)


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In an interview with the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.) makes an odd statement for a Republican. On a personal level, Cao said, "I love the president, and I believe he truly likes me." Cao said he's visited the White House about 10 times -- not counting the Superbowl party that he missed because of snow -- and earned an audience in the Oval Office during the health care debate's end stages. He said he appreciated that Obama never asked him to betray his conscience on abortion, just to "revisit the language" and see whether he could support the measure. Of course, Cao is a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic district -- one he won only because of former Rep. William Jefferson's numerous scandals. Some say he's the most vulnerable Republican incumbent. He was the only Republican to vote for the House's original health-care bill (though he voted


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By Felicia Sonmez An imbalance in voter enthusiasm between the parties is aiding Republican chances in at least seven key statewide races this fall, a Fix analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling data reveals. Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Kentucky are among the states where polls show the so-called "enthusiasm gap" playing a pivotal role, according to the Reuters/Ipsos data. (A full rundown of the poll data is available after the jump.) Among the trends in the Reuters polling: In six races -- the Pennsylvania, Colorado, Kentucky and Ohio Senate races and the Nevada and Ohio gubernatorial races -- recent polling shows the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate in a statistical tie among registered voters. But when only likely voters are surveyed, the Republican candidate's lead moves beyond the margin of error -- in some cases, increasing by as much as ten percentage points. In one race, the Nevada Senate race,


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